HARDEST HIT, LAST TO RECOVER

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About a week ago, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the nation's March 2021 Jobs Report. You've probably heard some of the top-line numbers trumpeted in the media. For instance, that the number of folk on the payroll increased by 379,00 between January 2021 and February 2021. Or, that the nation's unemployment rate ticked down a tad during the same time period, from 6.3% to 6.2%. By the way, that increase of 379,000 jobs marks the strongest month of growth since September 2020. All in all, the stats were characterized as good, even if not great. Makes sense, right? The number of jobs increased and, to boot, the jobless rate may have slightly nudged downward. Not bad.

All of which reminds me of a favorite saying of one of one of my former and fav economic profs: "Averages conceal as much as they as reveal." This was his way of exhorting students to dig beneath the surface, to disaggregate and peer beneath the stats to discover the possible existence of subterranean stories. And, not surprisingly, if you poke just a bit beneath the surface of the Jobs Report, you'll quickly encounter one of those sunken stories: The groups hit the hardest by the current recession are the last the wiggle out of the economic wasteland.

Take, for the instance, that unemployment rate number. While the national unemployment took a slight dip, the Black unemployment rate did the exact opposite. Between January and February, it jumped from 9.2 to almost 10% (9.9). Different story for Whites, though: During that same time period, the White unemployment rate remained essentially stable, slipping from 5.7 to 5.6%.

We're the only demographic group whose unemployment rate increased between January and Februrary. The only group.

Everybody's else stuff, at worst, stayed the same. Our stuff went up.

What was that little quip about averages?

BLACK AND HISPANIC WOMEN BEARING MORE THAN THEIR SHARE OF JOB LOSS

What's more, an analysis that includes both race and gender reveals a particularly problematic and subterranean story: While the recession has thrown millions into the economic pit of job loss, the recovery of these lost jobs is extraordinarily weak, and it's pulling Black women out of the quagmire at a slower rate than any other group.

Here's the deal:

We're still 10 million jobs short of where we were in February 2020, one month before COVID really hit the scene. And at the rate in which the economy is experiencing net job growth, it'll take two years at least just to get back to the pre-recession gig level.

According to the Economic Policy Institute, and as can be seen in the chart below, women--especially Black and Hispanic women-- are disproportionately catching the fall out from the current recession. In February 2020, men constituted 53% of the employed and 48.3% of job losses since then. Women, on the other hand, were just 47% of the February 2020 workforce, yet they were over half of those who lost their gigs since then. What really stands out, however, is the situation of Black and Hispanic women. Right before COVID started making inroads into the labor market, Black women were 6.7% of the employed but they account for more than 11% of those who have lost jobs since then. Likewise, in February 2020--about a year ago-- Hispanic women were less than 8% of all employed persons, yet they've experienced 13% of all the job loss that has taken place over the past twelve months.

What about White women? Their job loss was proportionate to their representation amongst employed workers: They were 36% of employed workers a year ago, and their share of job loss over the past twelve months has also been 36%.

Don't get me wrong. The job loss for each of these groups is serious. Loss your gig, jeopardize your ability to eat. Lose your job, run the risk of getting your lights turned off. Lose your position and possibly lose your crib. There's no doubt that job loss has been spread across various groups. But it's Black and Hispanic women whose share of that loss is far out of proportion to their representation amongst the employed.

What was that little quip about averages?

BLACK WOMEN ARE LESS LIKELY TO RECOUP LOST JOBS

But when it comes to regaining jobs lost, it's Black women who stand out. For the wrong reason. Of all demographic groups, they have been the least likely to regain jobs lost since this recession jumped off. There are nearly ten percent fewer employed Black women than a year ago. For both White men and women, in contrast, the number of employed persons is "only" 5 percent lower than it was a year ago. Regardless of what group you compare them to, Black women come up short when it comes to the nunmber of lost jobs recouped. This recession has thrown millions of folk into that pit of job loss, but it's Black women who are experiencing the slowest rate of job recovery. By far.

And there's also this: State and local government--an area where large numbers of Black women are employed-- continues to hemorrhage jobs.. During the month of February 2021, employment in this sector dropped by 86,000. This continual bloodletting, even though diminished, contributes to the slow rate at which Black women recoup the job losses they've experienced.

USE ANOTHER METRIC, ASK A DIFFERENT QUESTION

So, when the next Jobs Report hits, here's something to do: use a different metric and ask different questions. The overall uemployment rate easily hides how different groups are faring, can bury the fact that a lower overall unemployment rate is perfectly consistent with rising misery--rising jobless rates-- for certain groups. Digg beneath the data and drag to the surface the subterranean stories that too often remained buried and overlooked, if not dismissed. It's those subterranean stories that bear witness to how the most exploited and oppressed groups within the labor market are faring.

Allow those stories to speak. Loudly.

Focus on the Black unemployment rate as a metric for assessing the state of the labor market

Focus on the Black unemployment rate because the jobless rate for us is a superior measure of whether any so-called recovery is touching the lives and experiences of those on the lowest rungs of the economic ladder.

And don't forget to inquire--upfront-- about the status of Black women.

Because it's Black women--more so than any other group-- who are having the most difficult time of regaining the jobs lost as result of the recession,

In other words, don't forget to ask:

What about the sistas?

Catch you on the flip side,

Doc Greene